H—llA

75. In the case of both males and females the number of juveniles aged fifteen to twenty years has shown a gradual decrease from a peak of 82,000 males and 79,000 females in 1941 to the present total of 77,900 males and 74,700 females. This reduction in the juvenile group is likely to continue until 1952. After 1952 it is estimated that the numbers aged fifteen to twenty years will increase. 76. Without allowing for immigration, estimates of the number of males and females aged fifteen to twenty years for each year up to 1955 are given below. These figures represent the probable numbers of survivors of persons born fifteen to twenty years previously :

77. The age-groups 50-65 for males will also be a small group over the next few years, however, so that retirements will continue to be fewer than replacements and the male labour force as a whole will continue to increase very slowly, but with a serious dearth of juveniles. The same position regarding retirements will not hold for the female labour force, which, unless assisted by immigration, will actually decrease in total. 78. The following table shows the estimated changes in the male and female labour force over the next eight years if immigration is not allowed for :

Note. —At 'the time of writing this report (April, 1947) a revision of estimated employment figures has become possible through the availability of fuller information from Half-yearly Surveys and other sources. The revised figures, which will not be completed in time for inclusion in the report, will, however, be shown in the forthcoming Half-yearly Survey of Employment, July, 1947. 79. If the present rate of industrial expansion continues, this slow increase in available man-power will be quite inadequate to cope with, the increase in demand for labour, and it will be necessary to seek out all possible expedients to add to the numbers of persons in the labour force and to increase the effectiveness with which labour can be used. 80. Immigration is the most obvious method by which a direct addition can be made to the labour force, but (as discussed in Section VI of Part I of this report) shipping meanwhile places fairly close limits on the flow of immigrants. New Zealand thus appears likely to be faced with a labour shortage for some time. In Sections II and 111 below the problems arising from this shortage are reviewed.

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Year. Juveniles aged Fifteen to Twenty : Survivors of those born Fifteen to Twenty Years previously. Males. Females. Total. 1947 77,900 74,700 152,600 1948 76,200 73,100 149,300 1949 74,600 71,700 146,300 1950 73,200 70,300 143,500 1951 72,100 69,200 141,300 1952 71,300 68,800 140,100 1953 71,600 69,400 141,000 1954 73,200 71,000 144,200 1955 76,300 74,100 150,400

Year. Estimated Labour Force (including Armed Forces). Males. Females. Total. 1947 533,000 185,000 718,000 1948 535,000 184,000 719,000 1949 537,000 183,000 720,000 1950 538,000 181,000 719,000 1955 552,000 180,000 732,000